Climate is an important driver of human activities at global to local scales. My research and teaching explore climate prediction and the impacts of climate variability and change on water resources and agriculture. I am particularly interested in the following areas: (1) Future water availability for irrigation and its potential effects on crop yields, (2) Development of high-resolution, application-specific climate projections using global and regional climate models, statistically downscaled datasets, and weather generators, (3) Uncertainty in regional climate model simulations of the water and energy cycles over agricultural areas, (4) Causes and predictability of climate extremes (droughts, floods, heat waves), and (5) Implications of climate change for the Northeastern United States.
Winter, J.M., B. Beckage, G. Bucini, R.M. Horton, and P.J. Clemins, 2016: Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations over the Mountainous Northeastern United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17, 881-896.A. Zia, A. Bomblies, A.W. Schroth, C. Koliba, P.D.F. Isles, Y. Tsai, I.N. Mohammed, G. Bucini, P.J. Clemins, S. Turnbull, M. Rodgers, A. Hamed, B. Beckage, J.M. Winter, C. Adair, G.L. Galford, D. Rizzo, and J. Van Houten, 2016: Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river-lake continuum: insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 114026.Horton, R.M., E.D. Coffel, J.M. Winter, and D.A. Bader, 2015: Projected changes in extreme temperature events based on the NARCCAP model suite. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 7722-7731.
Winter, J.M., P.J.-F. Yeh, X. Fu, and E.A.B. Eltahir, 2015: Uncertainty in modeled and observed climate change impacts on American Midwest hydrology. Water Resources Research, 51, 3635-3646.
Ruane, A.C., J.M. Winter, S. McDermid, and N.I. Hudson, 2015: “AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment”, in Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments. C. Rosenzweig and D. Hillel, Eds., Imperial College Press.
Guilbert, J., B. Beckage, J.M. Winter, R.M. Horton, T. Perkins, and A. Bomblies, 2014: Impacts of projected climate change over the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53, 1861-1875.
Rosenzweig, C., J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A.C. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, J.M. Antle, G.C. Nelson, C. Porter, S. Janssen, S. Asseng, B. Basso, F. Ewert, D. Wallach, G. Baigorria, and J.M. Winter, 2013: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 166-182.
Winter, J.M. and E.A.B. Eltahir, 2012: Modeling the hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Part 1: Current climate. Climate Dynamics, 38, 573-593.
Winter, J.M. and E.A.B. Eltahir, 2012: Modeling the hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Part 2: Future climate. Climate Dynamics, 38, 595-611.
Winter, J.M. and E.A.B. Eltahir, 2010: The sensitivity of latent heat flux to changes in the radiative forcing: A framework for comparing models and observations. Journal of Climate, 23, 2345-2356.
Winter, J.M., J.S. Pal, and E.A.B. Eltahir, 2009: Coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator to Regional Climate Model Version 3. Journal of Climate, 22, 2743-2757.
Pal, J.S., F. Giorgi, X. Bi, N. Elguindi, F. Solmon, X. Gao, S.A. Rauscher, R. Francisco, A. Zakey, J.M. Winter, M. Ashfaq, F.S. Syed, J.L. Bell, N.S. Diffenbaugh, J. Karmacharya, A. Konaré, D. Martinez, R.P. Da Rocha, L.C. Sloan, and A.L. Steiner, 2007: Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1395-1409.