Justin S. Mankin

Visiting Research Scholar 2017
Assistant Professor 2018

My research aims to constrain the uncertainty in climate variability and change to better understand and respond to their impacts on ecosystems and people. I focus my efforts on three of the major sources of uncertainty in climate: the chaos innate to the climate system, the complexity of how people respond to climate stress, and how model choices influence our predictions of climate risks. In my previous career, I worked overseas as an intelligence officer.

Personal Website
B.A. Columbia University, 2004
M.Sc. London School of Economics, 2008
M.P.A. Columbia University, 2010
Ph.D. Stanford University, 2015

Selected publications

Mankin, J.S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A. P. Williams, R. Seager (2017). The curious case of projected 21st-century drying but greening in the American West, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1.

Diffenbaugh, N.S., D. Singh, J.S. Mankin, A. Charland, M. Haugen, D.E. Horton, D.L. Swain, D.E. Touma, M. Tsiang, B. Rajaratnam (2017). Quantifying the influence of historical global warming on the probability of unprecedented extreme climate events, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.1618082114.

Mankin, J.S., D. Viviroli, M.M. Mekonnen, A.Y. Hoekstra, R. Horton, J.E. Smerdon, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2017). Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326.

Ault, T., J.S. Mankin, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon (2016). Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st Century megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.1600873.

Horton, R., J.S. Mankin, C. Lesk, E. Coffel, C. Raymond (2016). A review of recent advances in re- search on extreme heat events, Current Climate Change Reports, 10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x.

Coats, S. & J.S. Mankin (2016). The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2016GL070445.

Singh, D, D.L. Swain, J.S. Mankin, D.E. Horton, L. Thomas, N.S. Diffenbaugh (2016). Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2016JD025116.

Moore, F., J.S. Mankin, A.H. Becker (2015). Disciplines: Integrating Climate and Social Sciences, Chapter 4 in Climate Cultures: Anthropological Perspectives on Climate Change. Jessica Barnes and Michael Dove (eds). New Haven: Yale University Press.

Mankin, J.S., D. Viviroli, D. Singh, A.Y. Hoekstra, and N.S. Diffenbaugh (2015). The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future, Environmental Research Letters, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114016.

Mankin, J.S., N.S. Diffenbaugh, (2015). Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends, Climate Dynamics, 45 1099-1116, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4.

Siegfried, T., T. Bernauer, R. Guiennet, S. Sellars, A.W. Robertson, J.S. Mankin, P. Bauer-Gottwein (2012). Will Climate Change Exacerbate or Mitigate Water Stress in Central Asia?, Climatic Change, 112 (3-4), 881, DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z.

Mankin, J.S. (2009). Gaming the system: how Afghan opium underpins local power, Journal of International Affairs, 63 (1), 195.